Lithium-Ion Batteries Were A Bust, But Advanced Lead-Acid Batteries Are Booming
In this year, lithium-ion batteries in lithium-
As one manufacturer after another, the Ion battery industry went bankrupt and disbanded the joint venture
Desperate for survival to spin off assets or restructure the business.
Headlines this year include: While Dow, Ener1, Valence, A123 and Altair are new members of lithium
Ion battery space, Samsung, Sony and Panasonic/Sanyo have been industry leaders for decades, accounting for about 60% of global production.
These manufacturers all face and succumb to different business challenges, but the underlying themes are very similar: the past few years have been a textbook example of the hype cycle, as the human imagination focuses on lithium
Ion batteries are a versatile solution that will bring a thriving electric vehicle industry that will free us from the tyranny of the oil giant.
The frenzy peaked in the summer of 2009 when the government paid $1.
2 billion grant for battery manufacturing.
A year within this excited mood began to fade to December of 2010 Energy Minister Chu warning said competition fierce of electric car will need to be able to under 15 years depth discharge of battery, provides energy storage capacity of five to seven times the current lithium
Ion battery and cost two-thirds less.
In information technology, electronics do not occupy space, do not have weight, and do not determine the choice of materials, these are lofty goals.
In the battery industry, ions do occupy space, do have weight, and determine the choice of materials, which is an impossible goal.
The best Battery today is only four or five times the battery that Thomas Edison made a century ago, for a reason.
The laws of chemistry are far less flexible or tolerant than the laws of physics that dominate the information technology revolution.
Now, for the first time in a decade, DOE is investing a lot of resources to finance new technology research and development, rather than trying to force inappropriate, uneconomical legacy technologies into a reluctant, price-sensitive market.
Ridiculous public relations positions, such as five times the energy and one time the commitment
Fifth, the cost of five years is still very common, but it is no longer credible.
At the same time, consensus among industry analysts is growing, warning that while the dream of cost
Effective lithium-ion batteries persist, the possibility of large-scale market adoption can be raised and the production economy is unlikely to be realized by 2020, and it may take longer to migrate from the laboratory to the factory.
Pike Research released a new report on advanced lead on Monday this week
Acid batteries that have regressed in years of irrational prosperity over the potential of lithium
Ion batteries and came to an amazing conclusion: The easiest way to conceptualize lead
Acid batteries are considered from the generation of products. Lead-acid 1.
0: Leading in history-
In the device where the lead electrode is immersed in the electrolyte bath, the acid battery is submerged. Flooded lead-
Acid battery technology becomes lead-
The acid battery industry still accounts for a large part of global manufacturing capacity and sales. Lead-acid 2.
0: second-class lead for permanent sealing and maintenance-free-
Acid batteries were invented in 1970s.
The AGM battery uses a absorbent fiberglass pad to carry the electrolyte instead of immersing the electrode in the electrolyte bath.
The main benefit of AGM technology is better acceptance of fees, longer cycles
No maintenance required.
Until recently, production capacity was limited to only a few million units per year, and AGM batteries were used only for high-value applications where reduced maintenance, increased safety or better performance demonstrated a price premium
In the past five years, global demand for AGM batteries has surged, increasing manufacturing capacity from millions of batteries per year to tens of millions of batteries.
The rapid shift in this demand is a boon for battery manufacturers, as the cost of AGM batteries is twice the profit per unit and the output is three times the profit per unit. Enhanced lead-acid 1. x and 2.
X: Over the past few years, leading manufacturers of flood and AGM batteries have introduced a large number of new products that are often classified as \"enhanced\" batteries.
The goal of all enhanced batteries is to extend the cycle
Life and increase the rate of charge acceptance.
Common enhancements include the use of thinner, purer electrode grids, reducing sulfuric acid by adding a small amount of carbon and other additives, and making other changes to reduce acid stratification, thus changing the electrode paste
While all of these enhancements are valuable and can increase battery performance by 50% to 100%, they are incremental changes, not Generation Progress. Lead-acid 3.
0: Class 3 of advanced pilot class-
Acid batteries developed over the past decade represent a fundamental change in the way lead is made
Acid battery works.
When the positive and negative poles of submerged batteries and AGM batteries use the pasted lead grid, the positive poles of the third generation batteries use the pasted lead grid and the negative poles use carbon compounds.
The final result is a hybrid device that is partially leading
Acid batteries and some super capacitors. Lead-
The specific energy of the carbon battery is lower than that of the submerged battery and the AGM battery, because the carbon of a given volume cannot store the same amount of electrons as lead of the same volume. However, lead-
Carbon Batteries not only compensate for the moderate loss of energy storage capacity, the cycle life is extended by five to ten times, and the charging acceptance rate is also higher than the traditional and enhanced submerged and AGM batteries.
These are \"quick charging leads-
Pike called the acid battery \"The future of the market.
The following schematic highlights the architectural differences between traditional leads
Acid Battery and updated leadcarbon devices. The lead-
The lead electrode pairs in the upper left corner are used for all submerged and AGM batteries. The lead-
Carbon alternatives in the top right and bottom center only exist in third generation devices. (
Click zoom in)
One of the most interesting aspects of lead
The carbon device changes the way leads
Acid batteries work but they don\'t change the way lead
Produce acid batteries.
Carbon devices can be built on any AGM battery line. While split-
Electrode devices require moderate equipment modifications that can be carried out in submerged and AGM architectures.
So, two or three
Generation technology can be quickly and seamlessly integrated into existing infrastructure.
Due to the continuous development of the third generation batteries in the past decade, they have not yet been widely used, because the testing of the battery industry is only slightly less stringent than the testing of new drugs in the pharmaceutical industry.
After all, automakers can\'t recall a $30,000 car because they cut costs or cut costs when testing a $300 car.
In the last three years, these two types of lead
Carbon batteries have been subjected to exhaustive verification tests by car manufacturers, railway companies, industrial equipment manufacturers and end manufacturersusers of large-
Fixed-scale storage systems.
They have all completed the industrial equivalent of Phase I and Phase II new drug trials and are entering the industrial equivalent of Phase III new drug trials in several industries.
Depending on the industry in which the battery will be used, final testing and validation will take months to years before a final implementation decision can be made.
When all required testing and validation is completed, a new look at the lead
Lithium will be available in the lithium battery industry
Provide first-class performance at an affordable price.
The third generation lead-acid batteries will never be used for portable electronics, electric cars and other toys, but they will be the only rational choice for applications where size and weight are not the key limitations of the task.
Understanding investment opportunities there are three listed companies producing first and second generation lead-acid batteries.
The biggest is Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI)
Has a global manufacturing and distribution footprint and dominates the automotive OEM market.
JCI reported $5.
For the fiscal year ended September 30, revenue from its power solutions division was $9 billion and revenue from its divisions was $0. 854 billion.
While battery sales account for only 14% of JCI\'s revenue, they generate 32% of its market segment revenue.
JCI\'s market capitalization was $19 at the close yesterday. 6 billion, or 1.
7 times the book value, 0.
TTM sales 47 times, TTM revenue 16 times.
The second largest is Exide technology (XIDE)
It has a global manufacturing and distribution footprint, generating about two
Its revenue comes from car batteries and-
Third, income from commercial and industrial products.
Exide reported $3.
Revenue was $1 billion and revenue was $56.
Net income for the fiscal year ended March 31 was 7 million per cent. For the six-
For the Months Ended September 30, Exide reported $1.
Revenue was $4 billion and net loss was $0. 12 billion.
At the close of yesterday, the market value of Exide was $0. 233 billion, down 0.
9 times the book value and 0.
08 times TTM sales.
The third largest is Enersys (NYSE:ENS)
The company has a global manufacturing and distribution footprint, and most of its revenue comes from commercial and industrial products.
Enersys paid $2.
For the fiscal year ended March 31, revenue was $3 billion and net income was $0. 144 billion. For the six-
For the Months Ended September 30, Enersys reported $1.
Revenue was $1 billion and $89.
Net income was 6 million.
At the close of yesterday, enersys had a market value of $1. 7 billion, or 1.
5 times the book value, 0.
TTM sales 74 times, TTM revenue 10 times.
There are two innovation leaders in the third generation.
Acid battery technology, but Axion Power International (OTC:AXPW)
Is the only listed company active in this field.
Axion has been developing the People\'s Bank of China for its patents. ®The impressive lineup of batteries and Tier 1 players has been testing since 2003
Business prototype since the medium term2009.
As Axion is still in its long final stages
It is reported that the company\'s long-term research and development plan is $8.
Revenue was $1 million, with a net loss of $8.
$6 for 3 million.
Revenue was $7 million, with a net loss of $6.
4 million per cent for the nine months ended September 30.
At the close of yesterday, Axion\'s market value was $34 million, or 2.
Book value 6 times, 3.
TTM sales 6 times.
Among the first-class battery manufacturers, I believe Exide has the biggest short board
Because in the past few years, its operational problems have exceeded its share.
The combined impact of restructuring costs and commodity price volatility has made the company profitable for many years and eclipsed the company --
Broad economy arising from the affirmative decision to punish short Bears
Optimize long-term performance-
In the past 24 months, Exide\'s share price has fallen from its peak of $12 to its current $2. 90.
Since its restructuring activities are almost done and the market is rapidly moving to products with higher margins, I still think Exide is more than one
Bagger being made.
My second favorite among Tier 1 battery manufacturers is Enersys.
Since the downturn in 2009, the stock has performed well and its implementation has been solid in all aspects.
Last month, Enersys said it plans to enter large businesses.
With its OptiGrid storage energy solution, a new turnkey megawatt-hour energy management system for utilities and large industrial applications, the energy storage market has been greatly expanded.
At the same time as the launch, Enersys is completing the construction of the OptiGrid storage Energy Solutions Customer Showcase in southern Vermont, which will help its customers understand the product platform and see the system running.
Since Enersys has a relatively low p/e ratio, which is 10 times the earnings, I believe it also has a considerable shortage --to medium-
When it comes to \"fast charging leads-
Pike calls it the \"acid battery\" of the \"future of the market,\" and Axion Power is the only game in town.
Although Axion\'s stock market performance has been sluggish since the end of sharply discounted stock issuance in December 2009, due to a series of impressive first-class OEMs and major battery users who have tested the PbC prototype hard, its business performance is spectacular.
Over the past three years, the People\'s Bank of China has shown extraordinary performance in the first two stages of OEM and terminaluser testing.
Axion is expected to start the third phase of OEM and terminal
In the next six months, user testing for automotive, rail, trucking and stationary applications.
Although R & D companies in the pharmaceutical industry usually gain market value in the testing and verification of new products, axion\'s price has gradually declined, and its high success has not brought more and more intangible asset value.
Axion\'s current market value, excluding tangible assets, estimates the technical value of the People\'s Bank of China as about 63% of accumulated R & D spending.
While it is difficult to predict the timing of future implementation decisions at any level of certainty, given the amount of testing and validation work that has been completed, the likelihood of technical failures is very small.
When the market finally understands and appreciates the economic potential of ASEAN third --
Technology, stocks should perform very well.
Axion will need to complete another modest round of financing to complete the third phase of OEM and end-user testing.
If the financing is closed before the Phase 3 test plan is officially implemented, the issue may be made at a moderate discount with the current price.
If the phase 3 test plan is formally implemented before the end of the financing, the issue may end at a price higher than the current price.
Disclosure: I am long OTC: AXPW.
This article was written by myself and expressed my views.
I received no compensation (
In addition to Seeking Alpha).
I have no business relationship with any stock company mentioned in this article.
From January 2004 to January 2007, I am a director of Axion Power International.