At the end of 2020 the third party monocrystalline silicon slice of the supply and demand situation

Solar photovoltaic (pv) net news: leading control over pricing, marginal capacity limit price range. Marginal cost pricing, cash monocrystalline silicon chip prices in theory by spot demand capacity on the cost curve corresponding to the position of cash cost decision. Marginal cost pricing characteristics on the polysilicon, photovoltaic glass, and other products fully reflected, but we think on monocrystalline silicon slice is slightly different. The main reason:

1) Vertically integrated manufacturer expansion monocrystalline silicon production capacity, demand compression a third party. Such as longji, crystal, ja integration vendors in these two years full expansion of the single crystal furnace, reduce foreign monocrystalline silicon slice of the purchasing requisition, but integration does not usually involve polycrystalline silicon and glass ring section. So cause the distortion of the silicon wafer cost curve, as long as the integration of the manufacturer has its own silicon capacity cash cost price is not higher than outsourcing, firms tend to their production. Even considering staffing, government relations, supply chain, demand factors such as expected, after may not even slightly higher than production.

　　2） Leading supply ability, grasps the pricing power. In order to fully diluted equipment depreciation costs and scale effect, leading firms tend to full capacity; According to our estimates, by the end of 2020 longji + in third markets, central supply about 96 gw ( Do not include lung base for private use) ； And even if, in accordance with the annual 140 gw of installed demand, 1. 1 times with the actual needs of the third party market also is only 99 gw, and supply more than 120 gigawatts (gw), which means that in this industry after the expansion, solar energy, longji and central supply capacity is only basic meet third-party market demand, this will also strengthen the notion of oligarchs on pricing, namely & other; Leading to master pricing power & throughout; 。

　　3） Marginal firms limit price range. Monocrystalline silicon slice of product homogeneity, leading the quality and stability has certain advantages, but & other; B2B” Attributes lead to brand premium is small; From the multiple new entrants expanding production scale and the actual operating costs, barriers to industry is not too high; So in excess of supply and demand situation, duopoly pricing too high will lead to a large number of new entrants to enter and production capacity and production, eating into leading order, namely the oligarchs cannot achieve freedom & other Price collusion & throughout; And the formation of & other; Cartel & throughout; （ cartel） 。 More reasonable situation is: two or three line manufacturers according to the marginal cost pricing, solar portal, tap on the basis of this, a small buoyancy realize zero. 1 - 0. 2 yuan/piece, this part of the premium from the faucet price control, high quality and high stability, etc. , in addition to longji to Japan after the doped gallium patent letter, released by the doped gallium ( Lower droop) And boron piece of same price also fueled the formation of premium.

as a whole, at the end of 2019, the mainstream M2 size silicon tax-inclusive price to 3. 6 yuan/piece, corresponding longji gross margin of nearly 40%, monolithic gross margin is about 1. 03 yuan, solar portal, monolithic net income up to 0. 81 yuan. The silicon after the expansion, we expected by the end of 2020 leading G1 size silicon ( 158. 75 mm square) The tax-inclusive price of about two. 4 yuan/piece, corresponding to the profit margins of about 20% of longji monolithic gross margin is about 0. 42 yuan, solar energy, monolithic net profit is about 0. 25 yuan. Subsequent as demand, supply expansion to slow and gradual improvement of supply and demand, gross margin, or to fix to about 25%.

solar photovoltaic network statement: this information is reproduced from the power grid cooperation media or other Internet website, solar photovoltaic network published the article for the purpose of the information, does not mean that agree with his point of view or confirm its description. The article content is for reference only.

this paper statistics the September to today issued a total of 2. 85 gw pv power plant EPC and 1. 9 gw component bid opening information. Among them, the EPC project owner units is given priority to with soe/state, this also reflected from the side, in project bidding and parity, the state-owned enterprises have become the absolute main force. In particular, solar panels, CGNPC in development of 410 mw, 603 mw, guangzhou energy saving 220 mw, 345 mw, jin can group of people for 200 mw, 190 mw hubei energy group, huaneng power 180 mw