Kind of the sun suddenly burst fire photovoltaic (pv) HIT the development process, path and prediction about the future

Editor's note: big probability is the HIT of the first year of industrialization in 2020. If the GW level big line as a symbol of industrialization, the first year of the industrialization of large probability will be HIT next year, mountain coal international big probability will vote on a GW real line, at the end of 2020 the global HIT production capacity is expected to more than 8 GW, currently about 2. 8GW。

HIT out has been 30 years, a breakthrough technology accumulation. How will future development?

heterojunction cells from germination to maturity

HIT bud: 1989 - In 1990. Japanese sanyo amorphous silicon thin film instead of eigen microcrystalline silicon layer, photovoltaic (pv) grid, to make the battery efficiency of 14. 5%, and name it HIT. Sanyo will HIT is registered as a trademark, patent protection to the end of 2015.

HIT error: 1991 - In 2015. Many research institutions at home and abroad to HIT process was optimized, and grope for different process routes, a few enterprises set up a pilot line, r&d efficiency is close to 25%.

HIT import: 2016 - In 2019. Sanyo patent protection expires in 2015, a large number of enterprises into HIT areas, solar energy equipment, construction of the dozens of pilot line, trying to HIT into commercial production, the production efficiency on 23%, research and development on 25%.

China HIT industry development history

early error: 2011 - In 2014. Peng, cylons, guodian enterprise on introduction of imported equipment.

middle trying: 2015 - In 2018. Ciic, han, jin, stone, and other enterprises to establish pilot line to production, and grope for equipment technology and battery technology, but because of the cost factor is not mass production.

the recent breakthrough: 2019. Its research and development efficiency of 25. 11%, become the new world record. Can jin jun stone r&d efficiency is close to 25%, the production efficiency of 24% on the site. And silver pulp localization of target is also a major breakthrough, HIT authors path is more and more clear, cost-effective, layout of HIT from early 7 enterprises expand to the current of about 20.

heterojunction cell upgrade space

HIT upgrade space is large. The efficiency of crystalline silicon cells limit at about 30%, no matter the PERC or HIT, to reach the level of efficiency, the PERC potential at 23%, is expected to HIT is projected at 26%, therefore the PERC and HIT the transition process of the photovoltaic industry technology progress of form. Near decades of technology exploration results, the next 10 years industry recognition technology direction is HIT + perovskite do laminated battery ( Tandem） 。 HIT to laminated only need to add 3 equipment, 4 membrane, costs about 0. 2 yuan/watt. HIT can upgrade to the lamination, HIT production line and the next generation of laminated production line can be fully compatible with, greatly reduce the risk of HIT production line were overthrown.

industry: HIT the development process and path

2. Cooked process 1 equipment: imported equipment, domestic equipment follow up authors

HIT the main production process has four steps, corresponding to the four kinds of professional equipment, milling machine, in turn, is cleaning system, PECVD, PVD/RPD, silk screen printing technique. Overseas meyer's is one of the highest barriers PECVD, technique and application materials of equipment more mature, but the price is more expensive; Domestic jun stone and ideal supply ability. Cleaning system of milling machine Japan YAC mature, YAC is now also in promoting local Chinese manufacturing, domestic express weichuang are under active development, has several machine shipment. PVD domestic big and red sun have shipment, silk screen printing machine for etc have been very mature.

review photovoltaic industry development history, is the head enterprise introducing foreign mature equipment to process, domestic equipment factory follow up authors. The current domestic HIT pilot line basically is given priority to with Europe and the United States, import equipment, domestic equipment factory has been in active research and development, the focus of the research in PECVD equipment technique, next year is likely to have a big breakthrough. The current price of about 7-1 gw imported equipment 800 million yuan, once the localization, will quickly dropped to 500 million yuan 1 gw, technology diffusion, is expected to 300 million yuan 1 gw.

2。 2 consumables: localization has breakthrough, rapid drop in demand peatlands will push costs

HIT the battery production process has four steps, respectively corresponding to the four broad categories of consumables.

wool cleaning system: KOH, HCL, H2O2, HF, additives, etc. , mainly in chemicals, very mature. Additives or imported mainly at present, companies in an attempt to nationalization, import additive cost about eight points/piece, if localization success, can drop to 2 points/piece.

PECVD: technique mainly TMB, B2H6, PH3 gas, very mature, the cost proportion can be ignored.

PVD/RPDS: argon, target material. Domestic manufacturers such as the forerunner, video on, one to have breakthrough, prices have lower than overseas manufacturers, future demand volume, the price is lower space. Core component is the indium oxide, target material quality accounted for over 90%, the remaining 10% is tin oxide and tungsten oxide and cerium oxide, titanium oxide and other metal oxides. About 900 - the price of indium 1000 yuan/kg, about 500 - processing fee Cost of 1000 yuan/kg, completely under 2000 yuan/kg, the price is in 3000 yuan/kg. The current target material cost about 5 points per watt, future demand is expected to 3 points after rare/watt.