Tsinghua sunshine solar photovoltaic need how long tonic maintenance

Utility scale solar photovoltaic power generation of the total cash flow analysis.

the discount rate the huge influence to the average cost.

in the base case assumptions, fall in the value and the leveling of integration costs lead to increased costs $60 / mw.

if the solar energy market share increased 1% annually during the entire plant life, the annualised return on investment will be fell sharply 13%.

the investment risk is not as big as it seems, because if you don't protect solar generator from the fall in the value and the influence of integration costs, lead to the negative earnings solar the steady growth of market share will never happen. Introduction of

a supplied in the previous articles involving several mainstream energy solution of the risk of some qualitative discussion. After about onshore wind energy and nuclear energy before, for the next three articles to utility scale solar photovoltaic (pv), the risk of natural gas and coal for quantitative analysis. For a typical scenario in the developed countries are analyzed. Technology cost level are very different in developing countries, will be introduced in a future article.

will clearly explain all of the most influential hypothesis, and to quantify their impact on the results. This will make the readers have the opportunity they think that the most appropriate assumptions clearly see the quantitative influence of risk.

method results will appear in the form of discounted cash flow analysis, the construction period of the year is only 1 kw the utility of solar photovoltaic power generation, followed by a profit for the factory or the longest 40 years operating period. Investment in the first year, then every year from electricity sales and operations and maintenance ( 运营管理) The cost.

the cost of capital is $1800 / kw. When adjusted purchasing power parity (PPP), which is considered to be a good global average. Operating and maintenance costs account for 1% of the annual cost of capital, assuming that these costs linear growth of 1% a year. After assuming power plant production fell by 2% in the first year, every year 0 drop in linear. 8%. Once every 15 years to replace the cost of the inverter is $100 / kw ( The hardware and installation) 。

after the initial capital investment of $1800, with the average wholesale price $60 / MWh and capacity coefficient of 18% of its electricity sales of annual cash flow as shown below. The linear power plant performance decline is clearly visible, as well as linear growth (O&M Despite the relatively small O&M costs) 。 Inverter replacement costs also are worth noting. Please note that, according to BP data, 18% of the capacity factor is selected to hover around 15% over the past four years next to the global average is optimistic.

use of this information, you can build cumulative curve (cash flow The figure below) 。 As is shown above, the initial $1800 investment recycling 28 years (when there is no discount The discount rate of 0%) 。 When the discount rate is 1. 4%, the solar panels, the net return on investment is zero. In other words, if the discount rate is set to 1. 4%, this analysis will return a stabilization of 60 $/ megawatts of electricity costs. Under more realistic 8% discount rate, the initial investment will not be repaid.

then, including the influence of the fall in the value of and costs associated with intermittent ( Discussed in the previous article) 。 First of all, the grid connection of additional costs included in the upfront costs. Assumption of solar farms and consumers average distance of 100 kilometers, the transport costs $2 per kilowatt/km, increase the cost of capital is $200 / kw.

second, assuming that balance cost is directly related to wind power market share, a one percent increase in market share increase in 0. $3 / mw. That is roughly half German current balance cost. The fall in the value of the

the third, the solar energy market value is based on the following factors of modeling. Market share is higher than 15%, the linear trend was deduced. Should be noted that solar power network, this trend represents Europe, China and Japan, Make up 74% of the current capacity, Its solar capacity factor is very low. Such as the southwestern United States, Australia and the Middle East market will see the increased capacity factor and the better matching with seasonal demand caused by the fall in the value of less dramatic.

the value of wind and solar power factor ( Factor for generator with constant output value is 1) Depending on their respective market share ( Sources) 。

when these assumptions used in solar market share of 2% ( The current global average) And every year increased by 1% ( Up to 40%) Build power plant, will produce the following annual cash flow. The higher the drop in revenue ) caused by the fall in the value of And the increased cost of balance is more obvious.

shown in the following cumulative cash flow analysis, even under the discount rate of 0%, now also can't take back half of the initial investment. Due to increased revenues fall below cost, the plant change begins when the inverter losses for the first time in 15 years.

the influence of the discount rate