2019 domestic demand uncertainty increases to meet peak season capacity of three or four quarters

According to the Chinese photovoltaic industry association and the photovoltaic (pv) are reported, on February 18, energy bureau new energy company called seminars, related enterprises management related work on the development of photovoltaic power generation in 2019 solicit opinions from the enterprise, the main contents include: ( 1) “ Live within your means & throughout; To subsidise the rated capacity; （ 2) Clear needs pv projects can be divided into state subsidies and state subsidies project, need subsidy program is divided into poverty alleviation projects, household photovoltaic, ordinary photovoltaic power station, The ground station) The front-runner, distributed photovoltaic industry and commerce, and form a complete set of uhv channel special project; （ 3) For the first time in pv single and single scale, the implementation of fixed subsidies; （ 4) To solve the problem of the legacy the household photovoltaic 531 policy last year; （ 5) In addition to the user to poverty alleviation, and the original approved special project, distributed and ground power station adopts the way of the bidding for subsidies indicator; （ 6) Declare the tender organized by the provinces, but by the national unified sorting, subsidies to declare and the principle of the bidding last year once; （ 7) The launch of project bidding is a quarter of the grid nodes.

nationwide bidding, non-technical cost and excess return is compressed, the degree of electricity subsidies or greatly reduced, distributed and ground stations across the country all adopt the bidding way get subsidies, similar to the leader project, under low LCOE of leading enterprises, operating link non-technical cost and excess return is compressed, KWH subsidies or greatly reduced, the marginal to meet the requirements of the yield of 8%. Class III resources area, for example, in a centralized system cost of 4. Under the condition of 25 yuan/W, KWH subsidies by 0. 158 yuan/kWh drops to zero. When 082 yuan/kWh, can satisfy the requirement of 8% yield.

2019 domestic size or super 2018: subsidies will be rated installed capacity in 2019, with the expected 3 billion subsidies scale ( Including poverty alleviation) Subsidies strength calculation, kilowatt-hour is 0. 075 yuan/kWh, subsidies scale of about 35. 9 gw ( KWH subsidies intensity is zero. 5 yuan/kWh, subsidies scale of about 53. 8 gw) , then consider 5 gw pv poverty alleviation and 5 gw without subsidy program, at the same time, after deducting 1 gw in 2018 about 531 interconnection household footprint indicator, or up to 45 gw pv installed size 2019, 44, 2018. 3 gw of installed scale.

in 2019 or 115 - global demand 125 gigawatts (gw), three or four quarters to meet peak season capacity, industry chain price or quarterly rise: we expect domestic demand about 45 gw in 2019, about 70 - overseas market demand 80 gigawatts (gw), global demand in 115-2019 125千瓦。 Due to the delay fall to the ground and 2019 policies, domestic demand or focus on the three or four quarters, superposition of supply side is relatively rigid, silicon material, wafer and cell link or a seasonal rise trend.

solar photovoltaic network statement: this information is reproduced from the power grid cooperation media or other Internet website, solar photovoltaic network published the article for the purpose of the information, does not mean that agree with his point of view or confirm its description. The article content is for reference only.

at the beginning of New Year, more warming signals in photovoltaic market! （ Source: WeChat public & other; A number of new energy & throughout; ID:一个 能源) Market pv installed soes crossover since years ago parity policy released online, signs of photovoltaic industry ushered in the stranger. Annual leave, the photovoltaic industry capital market performance is good, the product price to modestly, some enterprises began to strike first, heighten the market battle. In addition to the change of the industry itself