Battery Assault

Remember that Tesla\'s gigabit plant will become the world\'s largest lithium-
Ion battery factory?
By the time it reaches full capacity in 2020, it will produce 35 gigawatts of batteries per year-
Made worldwide in 2013.
Impressed?
As NIU fly pointed out in July, there is a competitor on Elon Musk\'s crown: BYD, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, already has about 23% of the large auto market
Expand the battery and plan to add 34 gigawatts of hours in 2019.
But there\'s more to wait.
Contemorary ex Technology, another Chinese battery manufacturer, is planning an initial public offering to help 10-
Bloomberg News reported on Friday that capacity had doubled to 26 gigawatts by 2020.
You then have to add all the other producers who are increasing their production.
Consultants at Taiyou Research raised the region\'s total production capacity to gigawatt hours by 2020, which left Tesla with only a few quarters in the market ---
This is probably a low estimate. But wait!
There\'s more.
All the batteries that power previous generations of electric vehicles will start to run out at this point, so electric car manufacturers will start to buy back the batteries, recycle the materials and use them to make moreion batteries.
Five Giwa hour preliminariesloved lithium-
According to Claire Curry, a New Energy Finance analyst at Bloomberg, ion batteries will be available in 2020, reaching 29 giwashi in 2025.
If you have a feeling of deja vu, it may be because solar panels have experienced similar production peaks in the past decade.
This is not good news for the companies that make them, as they have seen the module price drop nearly doublethirds.
Similar business
As Gadfly\'s Liam Denning has written, the model problem is plaguing companies that want to make money by installing all these cheap panels. Lithium-
The ion battery seems to have a parallel economies of scale.
According to data from Julia Attwood of BNEF, the learning rate of the technology is about 14%, which means that the price should drop every time the output doubles.
On this basis, the cost of the battery pack may drop from $384 per kilowatt hour in 2015 to $182 per kilowatt hour in 2025, and $126 per kilowatt hour in the Gigabit plant
A scale factory was built by 2030.
Assuming demand continues to grow, this may be good news for companies such as Tesla and BYD that should be mostly lithium consumers.
As a result, Ion batteries benefit when prices fall.
Companies like Samsung SDI, LG Chem and Panasonic that are more focused on making money by supplying batteries should be more focused.
A market that is going through the gold rush is a great place to make money, but also a major area for losing shirts.
Contact the author of the story: David Ficklin in d Ficklin @ Bloomberg Sydney.
NetTo contacted the editor in charge of the story: Katrina Nicholas, knicholas 2 @ bloomberg.