Depth reports new photovoltaic industry 'golden decade' : the beginning on the parity

Through the photovoltaic industry chain all authors efficiency potential analysis, cell and component link will become the technology of iterative main land, improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency and reduce component encapsulation loss is the key to realize power parity on the Internet.

on January 9, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration issued 'about promoting wind power, photovoltaic power generation subsidies, affordable access to the Internet announcement concerning the work ( Hair change energy [2019] 19) , put forward to promote wind power, photovoltaic power generation the relevant subsidies, affordable access to the Internet and related supporting policies and measures, so as to promote the development of renewable energy, high quality, improve the market competitiveness of wind power, photovoltaic power generation.

it is explicitly put forward the photovoltaic parity project ( Don't need to state subsidies executive coal feed-in tariff benchmarking photovoltaic parity pilot projects online) Energy by the provincial government departments to organize the implementation, the project construction is not restricted by the annual construction scale.

about the policy, the market of common interpretation is the parity with the setting up of the project is close to 20 gw, parity project is expected to be contributing to pv market incremental.

in the strong demand for support under the total installed capacity of 2018 to 106. 44 gw, frankly, before the installed base data beyond my most optimistic expectations. Then the paper generalizes structure see:

this stage is characterized by marginal effect reducing the policy, technology iteration bring costs down gradually become the main power to promote the development of the industry. We believe that the photovoltaic industry in 2019 is expected to open online at par as the theme of new & other; Golden decade & throughout; , mainly based on the three background:

1. 2008 - By 20180, China pv industry & other; Two head out & throughout; Develop & other; To master the whole industry chain's core technology and equipment & throughout; , which will lay the ground for the opening of the next 10-year gold base.

from the photovoltaic industry chain each link all 2017: silicon material production in China is 24. 20000 tons, accounting for global polysilicon production proportion to 54. 8%, six companies in the world top ten; China's total output of silicon wafers for 105 gigawatts (gw), total is 91. 7 gw, the global proportion for 87. 2%, the global top 10 silicon factory in mainland China.

the cell total for 83 gigawatts (gw), total output is 72 gigawatts (gw), 69% in the world, there are eight enterprises into the world's top 10.

total output of components for 105 in our country. 4 gigawatts (gw), total output is 75 gigawatts (gw), 71% in the world, there are eight enterprises into the world's top ten. New power capacity in China to 53 gw, new installed capacity of the world.

on December 29, 2018, China's first large-scale pv parity project in Qingdao golmud formally connected to the grid, the project with a total installed capacity of 500 mw, a total investment of 2. 1 billion yuan, the project the average electricity price is 0. 316 yuan/KWH, below the qinghai thermal power desulphurization feed-in tariff (benchmarking 0. 3247 yuan/KWH) 。

as the district advantage ( Low land costs, high available hours) Photovoltaic parity project began to appear, belongs to the parity Internet & other; Golden decade & throughout; Prelude has been opened.

this stage is characterized by the national most areas have begun to realize the generation parity on the Internet, at the same time of parity on the Internet after power realization improve supporting facilities, and to implement the power parity on the Internet, pv gradually become the main sources of energy.

from the current perspective, the photovoltaic power generation in China at the end of 2017 the total installed capacity of 1. 3 billion kilowatts, accounts for the proportion of all power generation equipment capacity for 7. 33%; 2017 national photovoltaic power generation 967 KWH, total electricity production 6. 1 of 49 trillion KWH. 49%.

a ( In 2018, and before) Industry development, driven mainly by policy recommendations focus on policy change and the flexibility of new power capacity;

phase 2 ( 2019 - 2020) Belongs to the parity Internet transition stage, this stage subsidies falling, parity has not been widespread, online recommendations focus on photovoltaic industry technology iteration and iterative benefit technology in the direction of the equipment enterprises;

stage three ( 2020 years later) The parity of power generation side has begun large-scale implementation, online recommendations focus on the change of energy structure and the ability to directly benefit light v new power capacity promotion products enterprises.

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according to the set consulting set the state of new energy, new energy research center network ( EnergyTrend) The latest data, the mainland polycrystalline silicon material for an average of RMB 72 in January 2019. 4 / KG, more than the average price of RMB 75 in December 2018. 5 / KG to reduce the 4. 11%; Single crystal materials in January for an average of RMB 79. 2 / KG, and last month, compared to RMB 81 / KG down 2. 22%. The China of polycrystalline silicon material 1 month for an average of US $8. In December 953 / KG, more than the average US $9. 39 / KG reduced 4. 65%