Don\'t believe a word about electric cars and the coming lithium shortage

FORTUNE --
Shay Agassi wants to turn the world into an electric car, and one of his future \"gas stations\" can replace the battery.
But just like the batteries in the flashlight and laptop need lithium to run ---
Is the battery replaceable? -electric cars.
Some people now say that in our growing batteries, this will make Lithium
Relying on society is becoming more and more difficult to achieve.
There are rumors in the media that the auto industry from oil to lithium is shifting from one limited resource to another, even the United States. S.
The real reason for the invasion of Afghanistan is to ensure its large deposits of alkali metals.
In addition, electric skeptics believe that it may be difficult to get enough lithium to push this shift.
No accident, Agassi is not in it.
\"This is one of the biggest myths that oil companies continue,\" said Agassi, founder and CEO of a company called \"better places, it positioned itself as an architect to support the network needed for replaceable battery cars and all related infrastructure.
According to the latest data from the US Geological Survey (USGS), current producers are providing enough lithium to fuel the projected number of electric vehicles over the next decade.
After that, the main factor driving competition among energy industry participants may not be the extraction of lithium, but the recovery of lithium.
Financially, it makes no sense to recycle lithium now.
Producers have mined too much to meet demand.
Currently, lithium is not used in any important way for car batteries-
For batteries in laptops, mobile phones and cordless tools.
All of these products were hit during the recession, meaning there was a lithium glut in 2009 and prices fell.
The only way to see a surge in lithium demand is that if electric vehicles are successfully launched in enough quantities, a significant increase in lithium manufacturing is requiredion batteries.
Battery surgeAgassi wants to be the one behind this surge.
His company, Better Place, is based on the principle that manufacturers do not need to wait for improvements in battery technology to launch consumers --
Electric cars.
Instead, Agassi wants to set up a network of exchange stations where drivers can trade in old batteries for new ones like they are now filled with batteries at gas stations.
Agassi has begun to introduce the project in the included environment.
Better Place works with Renault motors in France and Chery Motors in China to produce cars.
In Tokyo this year, Better Place built a battery change station and deployed four electric taxis to demonstrate how the system works.
Agassi said Israel should have a fully effective system next year, and he signed an agreement with Renault to build 100,000 electric vehicles for Israel and Denmark between 2011 and 2015.
He also plans to build a network in Australia and Hawaii.
His goal was high, and in the decade that it took a century to build the oil system, many factors prevented the establishment of the automotive fuel infrastructure.
However, lithium does not seem to be one of the limiting factors.
As of 2009, the United StatesS. had 2.
Reserves of 5 million tons of lithium are estimated at 23 million tons in other countries. Lithium-
According to conservative estimates, the ion Battery of the car only needs less than 15 kilograms of elements per battery pack.
\"In terms of the demand for lithium, producers will now maintain capacity,\" said Brian Jaskula, a lithium commodity expert at USGS.
He added that the number of producers now is only 60%, and they already have plans to expand if demand does increase.
Reports of massive lithium reserves in Bolivia and Afghanistan have caused a stir in the media ---
The idea is that it is possible to have access to lithium resources in both countries.
But it is unlikely that foreign miners will get this element from these two places.
Bolivia\'s President Evo Morales will not sell Bolivia\'s lithium, and Afghanistan is still too dangerous.
But the problem predicted by these countries is based on the assumption that lithium will follow a model similar to another limited energy source ---oil.
Lithium is not oil
First of all, its transistor demand is not high enough to be valuable.
The potential dispute over lithium reserves in Bolivia and Afghanistan depends on lithium becoming a popular commodity.
But if the electric car industry takes off, people don\'t need to develop new lithium sources in about a decade, says Jaskula.
This is assuming that the technology has not improved in manufacturing lithium.
More efficient ion batteries.
Agassi thinks it will.
\"Every five years, you need half of the lithium to make the same battery,\" a progressive model that echoes the laws of Moore transistors.
\"However, if you continue to use the same technology, we will have 3 billion batteries,\" Agassi said . \"
Even if cars are growing, it has been a matter for two centuries, so lithium is not a problem.
\"Lithium does not burn like oil.
Because it does not change chemistry while providing energy, it can be recycled.
There is only one company now recycling lithium because saving lithium is more expensive than mining.
The company, known as Toxco, received $9.
In 2009, the Department of Energy provided a $5 million grant to improve its lithium recovery capacity.
If the electric car takes off, more players will set foot on the scene, Jaskula said.
Then, it would be economical to recycle car batteries not only for lithium, but also for other more valuable materials such as cobalt.
This may mean that the future leader in the lithium industry will be the company with the best recycling technology.
According to a report from the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago, Virgin lithium will not dominate the market in early 2040, when the technology should be cheap.
When electric cars are launched, a race to better recycle is likely to begin.
Of course, it\'s risky to speed up recycling capacity now, says Jaskula.
This technology is only valuable when electric vehicles perform well and scientists do not find better battery metal in the next 30 years40 years.
It is difficult to predict what will happen next.