In the second half of the overseas pv can continue more than expected?

Solar photovoltaic (pv) net news: exported from China photovoltaic modules, actually exported from October last year has been up, 1-2019 years Total exports 32 in June. 2 gw, the top five markets accounted for 50%; The first five market for the Netherlands ( 4. 6千瓦) , Vietnam ( 3. 7 gw estimates may be more) , Japan ( 2. 88千瓦) , India ( 2. 8 gw) , Australia ( 2. 48 gw) , whole is given priority to with Europe, southeast Asia and other markets.

　　“ The windmill kingdom & throughout; Dutch traditional power mainly rely on natural gas power generation, in the development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic projects. At present, the Dutch planning photovoltaic capacity up to 20 gw in 2035. By the end of 2018 the Netherlands cumulative pv capacity has reached 4. Before 4 gw, far more than 2 gw installed expectations. In addition, the European double in September 2018 to cancel, also has certain influence demand for the Netherlands.

the government on June 30, 2019, after the grid project, to draw up the new FIT and PPA, and make sure the FIT will be gradually reduced, there are 630 rob. Because the new FIT and PPA subsidies drop is uncertain, subsequent installed there are downside risks.

Japan pv installed 6, 2018. 6 gw, photovoltaic cost is higher, the Japanese market for Japanese FIT (is the biggest impact of the photovoltaic industry development policy Renewable energy system for the purchase of a fixed price) Purchase prices are lower in recent years, beginning in 2017 more than 2 mw power plant purchase price should be determined by means of bid invitation, policy will need to participate in bidding of power plant in 2019 by more than 2 mw expanded to more than 500 kw, the future will continue to cut subsidies, but look from the end of 2018 to the first half of this year, because of the cost of the system down, a slight increase of installed in Japan.

India in 2018 for the 8. 3 gw, drop from 2017, 1. 3GW。 In August 2018, India for photovoltaic cells and components in low-income duties, the first year rate of 25%, photovoltaic construction costs lead to ascension, operators bidding enthusiasm decline. India has its own production capacity is limited, in the case of a 25% tariff, still need big quantity components imported from China. In August 2018, after the tariffs, domestic exports to India every month average components of 461 mw, number of installed in India than expected still can reach more than 60%. In August 2019, after the Indian tariffs will be down to 20%, tariffs and components cost reduction will drive India market to return to growth;

MIP policy cancelled after September 2018, the European market component price to market price decline, driven by rapid growth of the European market installed,

cancel double component imports 25% of its tariff, ( Double components accounted for about 10%) , and total cost expected to decline 25% * 10% * 50% = 1. Around 25%, with the United States is expected to ITC TuiPo phase offset (roughly 4% 4% * 35%) , the United States, photovoltaic (pv) basically see the total cost of the photovoltaic (pv) in the second half is expected to have is in part due to the ITC TuiPo rob.

if from the Angle of time, comb over the pv cost reduction for duration of the effect of final demand, generally from a cost can last for a whole year after the rapid decline in new demand, the wheel is 2016, 2011 - That wheel is also 2012, demand is generally accompanied by industrial chain price stability after recovery. Due to the base and cost reduction is slowing demand a year behind are generally not fall ( Because of policy for individual countries may have differences) 。 So simple racquet head line, the demand to improve should have are likely to continue to 19 q4.

total after judgment, coupled with various countries conclude a little, the United States, India, Japan is likely to decline, up up down overall slightly upward, Europe (Australia Q4 possible deceleration), Down, Vietnam, personally think that vertex is likely to appear in the second round cycle between q1 2020 to 2019 q4, overseas demand has downside risks, 2020, 2020 are likely to be higher than the overseas demand in the development of Chinese photovoltaic ( Before the June new photovoltaic (pv) grid factors plus 2020 policy to implement sooner than it was in 2019) , in judgment, the boom of pv ( Overseas + Chinese) Is expected to continue until early 2020.

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