Pv demand or more than expected in the third quarter

Recently, the national renewable energy information management center issued the '2020 years of photovoltaic power generation state subsidies for project application situation, as of June 15, received the provinces declared project 4168, accumulative total installed capacity of 33. 5GW。 According to the declaration of 2019 scale/into subsidies in proportion to the size of about 93%, according to projections for 2020 in subsidies for about 30 gw scale, and our forecast. More sufficient for the bid for the job preparation time, and there is no clear extension interconnection policies, we expect 2020 bidding work will be carried out as soon as possible after the completion of the bidding work, part of the project will also be contributing to the third quarter increment.

2020 households with distributed photovoltaic projects. National Energy Administration, according to data from the 2020 new photovoltaic power generation project budget combination of subsidies for 1. 5 billion yuan. Among them: 500 million yuan for household photovoltaic, subsidies for the project, Including centralized photovoltaic power station and industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic projects) According to the 1 billion yuan total subsidy project construction organization. With the scale of the subsidy at 0. 08 yuan per kilowatt-hour, solar equipment, calculated according to the available hours 1000 hours, 2020 new homes in photovoltaic roughly 7 gw. By the end of may the total household size is about 1. 25 gigawatts (gw), most of these projects have to be installation construction in the third quarter, we expect the size about 3 gw.

in 2019 approved by the part of the parity of projects is also expected to provide significant incremental installed in the third quarter. In April 2019, the National Energy Administration approval of photovoltaic parity project scale more than 14 gigawatts (gw), solar power grid, and the scale of the construction of the project is expected to less than 2 gw, the rest of the project construction scale about 12 gw. Part of the project can provide incremental new pv installed in the third quarter.

in addition, solar energy, 2020 base project part of the project is expected to also want to in the third quarter for installation. We expect the new domestic pv installed in the third quarter is still more than 10 gw, flat or slightly month-on-month growth, better than market expectations.

in addition, the recent industrial chain prices downward, also has obvious promoting effect to the domestic new power. Historically, the new power and industrial chain prices showed obvious negative correlation. In the report of the domestic pv market demand will be obvious pull ', we expect new domestic pv installed in 2020 is expected to reach even more than 45 gw, an increase of about 50%.

export data from components, exports to Vietnam in May the components of the scale of 340 mw, from April 190 mw increase obviously; Export to Australia in May the components of the scale of 560 mw, from April 80 mw increase obviously, and exports to India in May the components of the scale of 230 mw, 200 mw slightly also raise from April. With the outbreak of ease, solar energy, some countries overseas pv demand marginal improvement, drive the growth of the shipments.

export data from historical perspective, in 2018 and 2019 in the third quarter year-on-year exports components are improved, and the export of 13 in the third quarter of 2018 components. 2 gw, rose 30%; In the third quarter of 2019 export 17 components. 7 gw, rose slightly improved. With the outbreak of ease, in April and May 2020, components export 5 respectively. 5 gw and 6 gw, in the second quarter of 2020 is expected to export data from improved obviously, and draw lessons from history data, component exports is expected to continue to improve month-on-month in the third quarter.

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this paper statistics the September to today issued a total of 2. 85 gw pv power plant EPC and 1. 9 gw component bid opening information. Among them, the EPC project owner units is given priority to with soe/state, this also reflected from the side, in project bidding and parity, the state-owned enterprises have become the absolute main force. In particular, solar portal, CGNPC in development of 410 mw, 603 mw, guangzhou energy saving 220 mw, 345 mw, jin can group of people for 200 mw, 190 mw hubei energy group, huaneng power 180 mw