Trade barriers erected and the supply of photovoltaic market diversification trend under layout

Solar photovoltaic webex: experience severe policy impact, photovoltaic market scale is still grow to 101 GW in 2018, and the growth momentum will continue, in 2019, global demand is expected to site a record 110 GW demand increase at the same time also has the phenomenon of fragmentation, GW level market will grow from six in 2016 to 2019 of 16, the top five market share of the total city by 81. 4% to about 65%.

relative to the diversification of the market, the supply side continued to Asia. According to the capacity of EnergyTrend database, the global capacity batteries, components are 69%, 64% respectively set up in China, more have a production capacity of as high as 92%, 85% respectively in India outside of Asia. Further analysis in 2019, the main supply and demand of the market, mainland China, southeast Asia, Taiwan and South Korea are belong to the area of supply exceeds demand, while the United States, India, Europe and other places have to import products from these areas to meet the market demand.

photovoltaic market to international trade relations since 2012, continuously affected by trade barriers, a spate of the United States in 2018, 201, India's defensive duties, the MIP end, dramatic changes, such as the United States in 301 to make the market uncertainty.

because the terminal market still exists, the supply side to work became a problem. According to the market situation, supply the products to have two major type:

Australia, Japan, southeast Asia and other no barriers to trade market, all products import and export is not subject to any restrictions. Such market component purchaser first restructuring of price, brand and warranty, power quality, such as oriented, a line of China's main brand the most advantage in the face.

India on July 26, 2018 to start the defensive duties, observe China's export situation for India, however, India is in 8 - cargo demand October due to policy repeatedly in a low, but imports significantly after November. India market there is still a gap, and China's polycrystalline component tax prices still can be controlled in US $0. 29 / W here, India's defensive tariff protection degree is insufficient, only duty-free components from Vietnam, Thailand has a chance to compete with after-tax Chinese components.

another case is the United States. The United States has about 2. 5 gw battery and 6. 6 gw capacity of components, in December 2019. 5 gw market still have 10 gigawatts (gw) and 5, respectively. 9 gw demand gap. Turkey, India and other countries products are entirely, but its limited capacity, products as well as the ratio of the main suppliers in Asia, so the United States will import products from Asia. In year 2. 5 gw of battery after tax exemption, tax will be imported products. In Taiwan, mainland China, southeast Asia and the component price batteries to analyze, southeast Asia battery with the United States is the most dominant component encapsulation, as shown in figure 3 blue line. Second is directly imported from southeast Asia component.

in mainland China and Taiwan is still affected by the double anti-tax cover, comprehensive tax rate is higher than other regions. The comprehensive tax system industry in Taiwan for 26. 33 - 49. 5%, China's comprehensive capacity rate is 62. 24 - 286. 59%, but the price of the product in Taiwan is higher, so the lowest rate of after-tax prices are equal. However, because of Taiwan to the United States export is given priority to with cell, while China is mostly composed of vertically integrated manufacturer direct export components, so mainly in battery and component part and the southeast competition capacity.

in addition to the foregoing two forms, supplies are available from the trade barriers will crowd out two phenomena. For example, India's defensive duties block capacity in Malaysia, if produce supply gap, thus may by neighboring without tariffs productivity came to Vietnam, Thailand, or by the after-tax price still cost-effective production capacity in China are available. But the supply crowd out the most obvious phenomenon happened in Europe. Chinese products in 531 after the New Deal for the price of the crash, and MIP in Europe at the end of September 3, 2018, making China the price of the products have strong competitiveness, market share since October 2018, more than fifty percent, to Taiwan, South Korea, southeast Asia and other places has caused significant crowding out effect.

origin restricted by different, plus all the cost of production and product market have head, in the supply chain in 2 h18 sharp reduction of cases, the essence of national barriers to trade have different threshold intensity, global product flow is very chaotic. The whole, China's capacity for its product price and availability and dominate the global market; Taiwan is given priority to with battery slice of export, and the production cost is high, price competitiveness is weak, export space is a challenge. Southeast Asia, in contrast, production capacity has low production cost, stable supply, export the advantages of the space is larger. Even in places where trade barriers exist, the southeast Asia capacity can still be based on market conditions change to allocate, elasticity of supply is the highest.

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